Behind their PR smiles of confidence, there is a nervousness in Fine Gael. More than half their TDs are not standing again and they are reliant on the spurious image of Simon Harris, which won’t hold up under any serious scrutiny.
Some journalists are already starting to see this. Una Mullally from the Irish Times ran a story under the headline ‘I cannot see voters buying Simon Harris’ Message that everything is great’. She has pointed out that ‘across three election cycles it went from 76 seats to 50 to 35 and now 32’.
Fionnan Sheahan, the Irish Independent editor, has even speculated that there could be a ‘nightmare on Kildare Street’ and Harris could get ‘a house of horrors’ if voters are spooked.
This nervousness explains Fine Gael’s effort to pose as more caring. Take the suggestion that the party now favours a public childcare care system that would see new centres opened beside school buildings. Harris has even promised parents that they will not pay more than €200 a month for childcare.
But hold on. This is a party that has been in power for 14 years. It has opposed every effort to ‘interfere’ in the market. It repeatedly tells us that more competition in the private sector brings down prices. And then suddenly – before an election – they talk of a public childcare system!
The main reason for Fine Gael’s spurious confidence has been the decline in support for Sinn Féin. The party has dropped from 37% in the polls to just 16%. Incredibly, it is even lower in Dublin, polling just 14% in a recent poll.
The reason for this calamitous drop is that Sinn Féin is seen as two faced, dithering and untrustworthy. Their voter base is very different North and South. In the North, they grew out of a struggle, including an armed struggle, against a state that systematically discriminated against the minority. In the South, many looked to them as the quickest way to get rid of Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael. As long as the polls were positive, they continued upwards. But as soon as people saw they wanted to join the establishment and would speak with both sides of their mouth, particularly on immigration, support fell away.
This has opened the space for a real left – one that is willing to mobilise people power to challenge the status of the privileged in Irish society. But it is by no means guaranteed.
Disillusionment combined with demoralisation can lead to a ‘plague on all your houses approach’. In disgust at the establishment, people may look to ‘independents’ as a protest.
But many independents come from the same gene pool as Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael – and will vote to keep them in government. Worse, some far-right elements pose as independents because they dare not speak openly about their real agenda.
There are of course a small number of genuine left-wing independents, but while they can give voice, they do not have the collective organisation to mount serious challenges to the system.
In the coming election, People Before Profit states openly that we want a government without Fianna Fáil or Fine Gael. Unlike Labour, the Social Democrats, or Sinn Féin, we refuse to play the game of saying one thing before an election and then joining Fianna Fáil or Fine Gael in coalition afterwards. We rule out that possibility in advance because there can be no real change if they are back in government.
The more TDs we have, the greater the push for Ireland’s first real left-wing government – one that relies on people power rather than manoeuvres behind closed doors.
This is why we appeal to all our supporters to do all you can to promote People Before Profit in the coming election.
You can make a donation to our campaign by going to pbp.ie/donate right now.
You can help spread our message by distributing leaflets, posters, and materials on social media. Get in touch with [[email protected]](/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection) and we will get back to you immediately.