When Gay Byrne says we should pray for a victory of the radical left in Greece, you have to sit up and take notice.
Here is the gist of what he said last Sunday, between playing jazz records on Lyric FM
‘In 1953, there was a London Debt Conference which wrote down the debts of Germany. Many countries – including even Ireland – agreed to write down their debt.
So why cannot the same happen for us today?
We should have another debt conference so that we stop paying off €8 billion in interest to bondholders.
‘Think of what we could do with our hospitals and schools if we had €8 billion extra a year.
‘Now there is a fella in Greece, Tsipras from a party called Syriza who wants a similar conference to the London conference of 1953. His party may win the coming general election. We should say our prayers and our novenas that he wins’
We could not put it better. The government and the media have tried to bury the issue of debt. They say it is ‘old hat’ to talk about writing down debt. ‘We are where we are’ and we need ‘realistic’ and ‘credible’ policies – which is code for more austerity.
However, the Greek election next Sunday looks like being a ’game changer.’
Syriza, the Coalition of the Radical Left, is standing on a programme of reversing the Troika cuts. They want to increase public spending, take on more public sector workers, abandon privatisation and increase the minimum wage. And polls indicate that they are set to win the election.
Greece has suffered even more drastically from austerity than Ireland. Syriza, therefore, proposes a number of measures to deal with the ‘humanitarian crisis’ which has been produced by mass poverty. They want to provide free electricity up to 300kWh per month per family for those under the poverty line; meal subsidies for the poorest 300,000 families; a special public transport card for the long-term unemployed.
All of these measures require the removal of the debt burden on Greece. And this is why they propose another European Debt Conference to write down debt. Specifically, they want the European Central Bank to buy up the sovereign debt of countries like Greece, Ireland and Spain where the debt is higher than 50% of GDP. They want the ECB to park that debt so that these countries have a chance to grow their economies. When their debt ratio has fallen to 20% of GDP because of this growth policy, they can then be asked to pay the debt back over a longer period.
In brief, this is a policy which is commonly associated with the economist Keynes.
In the Dail, Enda Kenny was asked whether he supported this idea of a European Debt Conference and in an astounding response he simply said no. His Labour Party backers, who once talked of ‘Labour’s Way or Frankfurt’s way’, sat in silence.
All of this shows why Ireland needs a broad radical left alliance that takes on a programme of debt reduction.
But the path ahead for Syriza will not be easy.
First, they may not win an absolute majority and may, therefore, seek to form a coalition with smaller parties such as the right wing Independent Greeks or The Movement for Democratic Socialists led by George Papandreou, the prime minister who previously implemented austerity.
Second, Syriza have not talked of any ‘Plan B’ to deal with a scenario where the European leaders refuse to write down debt. This has been urged on them by their own left wing and by the left outside their party
All of this may come to a head at a very early stage. The Greek economy needs another immediate infusion of credit for the next six months and the EU and the IMF will demand their pound of flesh. They will push Syriza to go back on its word and implement austerity.
In brief, therefore, the election of Syriza will raise the expectations of workers in Greece- and people all over Europe- but, equally it will frighten a privileged class who are more than willing to resort to economic terrorism to enforce their will.
A new flashpoint is, therefore, opening up in Greece. To win, a Syriza government would have to unilaterally write down debt and be prepared to mobilise workers to prevent any economic sabotage of their country.
Time will tell whether they are willing to take such measures.
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